Tuesday, October 15, 2013

The Non-random Factors

Football squares is not entirely random for several reasons. These factors will be studied and will result in a description of a strategy for you to choose your squares.

1) The teams corresponding to the rows and columns are known. In my example, the home team corresponds to the rows and the visiting team corresponds to the columns. It turns out, the home team on average scores about 2.5 more points per game than the visiting team. This implies different numbers are are more or less likely on rows versus columns. Similarly, you might only play differently depending on which team was favored or you might play differently if you knew the expected total number of points that might be scored.

2) Scores in Q1-Q3,FS are correlated. It will be studied whether picking squares that are similarly correlated might have advantages. It's not obvious whether picking 4 squares in a row might actually be preferred to picking 4 squares with a unique row and column. The simulation can address this as it uses the historical data that encompasses these correlations.

3) The player often has the choice of how many squares to acquire. If it's a single square, the game is certainly random as the numbers for the rows and columns are chosen randomly. If a player can choose multiple squares, how one makes the picks given factors 1) and 2) gives rise to a strategy.

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